Out-of-Distribution Generalization in Climate-Aware Yield Prediction with Earth Observation Data

Abstract

Climate change is increasingly disrupting agricultural systems, making accurate crop yield forecasting essential for food security. While deep learning models have shown promise in yield prediction using satellite and weather data, their ability to generalize across geographic regions and years - critical for real-world deployment - remains largely untested. We benchmark two state-of-the-art models, GNN-RNN and MMST-ViT, under realistic out-of-distribution (OOD) conditions using the large-scale CropNet dataset spanning 1,200+ U.S. counties from 2017-2022. Through leave-one-cluster-out cross-validation across seven USDA Farm Resource Regions and year-ahead prediction scenarios, we identify substantial variability in cross-region transferability. GNN-RNN demonstrates superior generalization with positive correlations under geographic shifts, while MMST-ViT performs well in-domain but degrades sharply under OOD conditions. Regions like Heartland and Northern Great Plains show stable transfer dynamics (RMSE less than 10 bu/acre for soybean), whereas Prairie Gateway exhibits persistent underperformance (RMSE greater than 20 bu/acre) across both models and crops, revealing structural dissimilarities likely driven by semi-arid climate, irrigation patterns, and incomplete spectral coverage. Beyond accuracy differences, GNN-RNN achieves 135x faster training than MMST-ViT (14 minutes vs. 31.5 hours), making it more viable for sustainable deployment. Our findings underscore that spatial-temporal alignment - not merely model complexity or data scale - is key to robust generalization, and highlight the need for transparent OOD evaluation protocols to ensure equitable and reliable climate-aware agricultural forecasting.