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arXiv · 2510.08309

Two-Stage Trigonometric Regression for Modeling Circadian Rhythms

Michael T. Gorczyca·Jenna D. Li·Charissa M. Newkirk·Arjun S. Srivatsa·Hugo F. M. Milan
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Abstract

Gene expression levels, hormone secretion, and internal body temperature each oscillate over an approximately 24-hour cycle, or display circadian rhythms. Many circadian biology studies have investigated how these rhythms vary across cohorts, uncovering associations between atypical rhythms and diseases such as cancer, metabolic syndrome, and sleep disorders. A challenge in analyzing circadian biology data is that the oscillation peak and trough times for a phenomenon differ across individuals. If these individual-level differences are not accounted for in trigonometric regression, which is prevalent in circadian biology studies, then estimates of the population-level amplitude parameters can suffer from attenuation bias. This attenuation bias could lead to inaccurate study conclusions. To address attenuation bias, we propose a refined two-stage (RTS) method for trigonometric regression given longitudinal data obtained from each individual participating in a study. In the first stage, the parameters of individual-level models are estimated. In the second stage, transformations of these individual-level estimates are aggregated to produce population-level parameter estimates for inference. Simulation studies show that our RTS method mitigates bias in parameter estimation, obtains greater statistical power, and maintains appropriate type I error control when compared to the standard two-stage (STS) method, which ignores individual-level differences in peak and trough times. The only exception for parameter estimation and statistical power occurs when the oscillation amplitudes are weak relative to random variability in the data and the sample size is small. Illustrations with cortisol level data and heart rate data show that our RTS method obtains larger population-level amplitude parameter estimates and smaller $p$-values for multiple hypothesis tests when compared to the STS method.

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Michael T. Gorczyca, Jenna D. Li, Charissa M. Newkirk, Arjun S. Srivatsa, Hugo F. M. Milan. 2025-10-09. Two-Stage Trigonometric Regression for Modeling Circadian Rhythms. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.08309

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