Travel Bans vs. Other Disease Mitigation Measures: A Mathematical Analysis

Abstract

As the world grows increasingly connected, infectious disease transmission and outbreaks have become a pressing global concern for public health officials and policymakers. While policy interventions to contain and prevent the spread of disease have been proposed and implemented, there has been little rigorous quantitative analysis of the effectiveness of such interventions. In this paper, we study the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infection process on a dynamic network model that models two communities with travel between them with the infection starting in one of them. In particular, we consider two Erdős--Rényi graphs where edges are dynamically changing based on node travel between the graphs. We characterize the time evolution of the outbreaks in both communities and pin down the time for when the infection first reaches the second community. Finally, we analyze two types of interventions--travel bans and intra-community interventions in the second community--and prove that travel bans are not effective, while the second type are effective even without travel bans, provided they sufficiently reduce the effective reproduction number. We complement our analytic results by numerical simulations on large networks with realistic degree distributions and disease recovery times, showing that these results are robust, and hold for settings that model actual contact networks and disease spread more closely.