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arXiv · 2510.09530

Project Severe Weather Archive of the Philippines (SWAP). Part 2: Baseline Climatology of Close Proximity Soundings in Hailstorm Environments across Luzon, Philippines

Generich H. Capuli
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Abstract

The environments of severe thunderstorms that produced hail were examined using 171 proximity soundings (2005-2024) archived in the 3rd Data Release of Project SWAP. These soundings were categorized based on their geographical occurrence into three hail-prone environments across Luzon, Philippines. Key parameters describing instability, vertical wind shear, and moisture were calculated to assess the environmental conditions for hail production. The probability of hail occurrence, expressed as a function of W$_{\text{MAX}}$ ($\sqrt{2 \times \text{CAPE}}$) and 0-6 km bulk shear (DLS), revealed patterns distinct from those reported in other regions. Hail events in Luzon were most likely under high CAPE conditions, where boundary-layer moisture was sufficient, mid- and low-level lapse rates were steep, and lifting condensation levels were high. Surprisingly, weak DLS was common across Luzon hail environments, diverging from existing severe weather climatologies, yet large DCAPE indicated environments conducive to damaging wind events. When DLS was replaced with the shear magnitude between the cloud base and equilibrium level, the probability of hail occurrence increased, better aligning with global severe weather climatologies. This finding is supported by hodograph analyses, which show largely unidirectional wind profiles: strong speed shear aloft but weak directional shear in the low-levels. Parameters such as W$_{\text{MAX}}$SHEAR, W$_{\text{MAX}}$SHEAR$_{\text{LCL-EL}}$, and BWD$_{\text{LCL-EL}}$ emerge as potential discriminators between non-severe and severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail, and as useful metrics for assessing convective storm severity in Luzon and possibly countrywide. Finally, two recurring severe setups conducive to hail were identified: (1) an easterly regime associated with trade winds, and (2) a westerly regime linked to the Asian summer monsoon.

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Generich H. Capuli. 2026-03-16. Project Severe Weather Archive of the Philippines (SWAP). Part 2: Baseline Climatology of Close Proximity Soundings in Hailstorm Environments across Luzon, Philippines. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-9484

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