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arXiv · 2510.14355

Combining spectral analysis and narrow band pass filtering to predict solar cycle parameters in the next solar grand minimum

Ian Edmonds·Peter Killen
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Abstract

We introduce a new method for predicting sunspot number (SSN) that, based on successful back projections, can predict features of the SSN several solar cycles in advance. The method applies Fourier analysis to the annual SILSO SSN record, from 1700.5 to 2023.5, to identify in the spectrum, four strong components in the decadal, 10 to 11 year period, range and four weaker components in the octal, 8 to 9 year period, range. The time variation of each component is isolated by a new method of narrow band pass filtering. The components are fitted with sinusoids at the beginning/end of the SSN record for back/forward projection. Back projection successfully replicated the long term features of the Maunder Minimum. Forward projection predicts a Maunder-like grand minimum from 2030 to 2110, encompassing solar cycles 26 to 35. Details of short term features of SSN within the grand minimum are less certain. The octal contribution to SSN is shown to occasionally exceed the decadal contribution both in the projection and also within the observational record. Predicted SSN amplitudes for cycles 26 and 28 are about 50, about half the amplitude of cycles 24 and 25. The amplitude of cycle 27 is difficult to forecast as it may emerge as a double peak of cycle 26 rather than as two separate cycles 26 and 27. Amplitudes forecast for cycles 29 to 33 are, on average, about half the amplitude of cycles 26 and 27 with the lowest cycle of the grand minimum, cycle 30, occurring around 2070. Interference between the octal and decadal components evident in the SSN spectrum are shown to result in micro changes in SSN such as the Waldmeier Effect. Inter group results in the occurrence of grand solar minima and maxima. Intra component group interference results in long term variation grand maxima/minima patterns that may relate to the occurrence of long term climate variability.

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Ian Edmonds, Peter Killen. 2025-10-16. Combining spectral analysis and narrow band pass filtering to predict solar cycle parameters in the next solar grand minimum. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.14355

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