Viral population dynamics at the cellular level, considering the replication cycle

Seong Jun Park

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arXiv · 2510.14481

Viral population dynamics at the cellular level, considering the replication cycle

Seong Jun Park

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Abstract

Viruses are microscopic infectious agents that require a host cell for replication. Viral replication occurs in several stages, and the completion time for each stage varies due to differences in the cellular environment. Thus, the time to complete each stage in viral replication is a random variable. However, no analytic expression exists for the viral population at the cellular level when the completion time for each process constituting viral replication is a random variable. This paper presents a simplified model of viral replication, treating each stage as a renewal process with independently and identically distributed completion times. Using the proposed model, we derive an analytical formula for viral populations at the cellular level, based on viewing viral replication as a birth-death process. The mean viral count is expressed via probability density functions representing the completion time for each step in the replication process. This work validates the results with stochastic simulations. This study provides a new quantitative framework for understanding viral infection dynamics.

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Seong Jun Park. 2026-07-11. Viral population dynamics at the cellular level, considering the replication cycle. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.14481

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