Learning Peer Influence Probabilities with Linear Contextual Bandits

Abstract

In networked environments, it is common for users to share recommendations about content, products, services, and possible courses of action. Whether these recommendations are accepted and acted upon is highly context-dependent, influenced by the characteristics of the sender and recipient, the nature of their relationship, the attributes of the recommended item, and the communication context. Consequently, probabilities of peer influence exhibit substantial heterogeneity across individuals and settings. Accurate estimation of these probabilities is key to understanding information diffusion processes and to improving the effectiveness of viral marketing strategies. However, learning these probabilities from data is challenging; static data may capture correlations between peer recommendations and peer actions but fails to reveal influence relationships. Online learning algorithms can learn these probabilities from interventions but either waste resources by learning from random exploration or optimize for rewards, thus favoring exploration of the space with higher influence probabilities. In this work, we study learning peer influence probabilities under a contextual linear bandit framework. We show that a fundamental trade-off can arise between regret minimization and estimation error, characterize all achievable rate pairs, and propose an uncertainty-guided exploration algorithm that, by tuning a parameter, attains any pair within this trade-off. Our experiments on semi-synthetic network datasets show the advantages of our method over static methods and contextual bandits that ignore this trade-off.