Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2510.22293

Predicting Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease using Machine Learning Methods: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Mary E. An·Paul M. Griffin·Jonathan G. Stine·Balakrishnan S. Ramakrishna·Soundar R. T. Kumara
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Background: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) affects 30-40% of US adults and is the most common chronic liver disease. Although often asymptomatic, progression can lead to cirrhosis. The objective of the study was to develop and evaluate an electronic health record (EHR) based prediction model to support early detection of MASLD in primary care settings. Methods: We evaluated LASSO logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost, and a neural network model for MASLD prediction using clinical feature subsets from a large EHR database, including the top 10 ranked features. To reduce disparities in true positive rates across racial and ethnic subgroups, we applied an equal opportunity postprocessing method in a prediction model called MASLD EHR Static Risk Prediction (MASER). Results: This retrospective cohort study included 59,492 participants in the training data, 24,198 in the validating data, and 25,188 in the testing data. The LASSO logistic regression model with the top 10 features was selected for its interpretability and comparable performance. Before fairness adjustment, the model achieved AUROC of 0.84, accuracy of 78%, sensitivity of 72%, specificity of 79%, and F1-score of 0.617. After equal opportunity postprocessing, accuracy modestly increased to 81% and specificity to 94%, while sensitivity decreased to 41% and F1-score to 0.515, reflecting the fairness trade-off. Conclusions: MASER achieved competitive performance for MASLD prediction, comparable to previously reported ensemble and tree-based models, while using a limited and routinely collected feature set and a diverse study population. The model is designed to support early detection and potential integration into primary care workflows. MASER demonstrates EHR-ready MASLD prediction with fairness adjustments, supporting future primary care implementation pending prospective validation.

Explore related subjects

cs.LGcs.CYq-bio.QM

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Mary E. An, Paul M. Griffin, Jonathan G. Stine, Balakrishnan S. Ramakrishna, Soundar R. T. Kumara. 2026-04-09. Predicting Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease using Machine Learning Methods: A Retrospective Cohort Study. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.22293

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Analysis of Regularized Learning in Banach Spaces for Linear-functional Data

This article delves into the study of the theory of regularized learning in Banach spaces for linear-functional data. It encompasses discussions on representer theorems, pseudo-approximation theorems, and convergence theorems. Regularized learning is designed to minimize regularized empirical risks over a Banach space. The empirical risks are calculated by utilizing training data and multi-loss functions. The input training data are composed of linear functionals in a predual space of the Banach space to capture discrete local information from multimodal data and multiscale models. Through the regularized learning, approximations of the exact solution to an unidentified or uncertain original problem are globally achieved. In the convergence theorems, the convergence of the approximate solutions to the exact solution is established through the utilization of the weak* topology of the Banach space. The theorems of regularized learning are utilized in the interpretation of classical machine learning, such as support vector machines and artificial neural networks.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

On Minimal Depth in Neural Networks

Understanding the relationship between the depth of a neural network and its representational capacity is a central problem in deep learning theory. In this work, we develop a geometric framework to analyze the expressivity of ReLU networks with the notion of depth complexity for convex polytopes. The depth of a polytope recursively quantifies the number of alternating convex hull and Minkowski sum operations required to construct it. This geometric perspective serves as a rigorous tool for deriving depth lower bounds and understanding the structural limits of deep neural architectures. We establish lower and upper bounds on the depth of polytopes, as well as tight bounds for classical families. These results yield two main consequences. First, we provide a purely geometric proof of the expressivity bound by Arora et al. (2018), confirming that $\lceil \log_2(n+1)\rceil$ hidden layers suffice to represent any continuous piecewise linear (CPWL) function. Second, we prove that, unlike general ReLU networks, convex polytopes do not admit a universal depth bound. Specifically, the depth of cyclic polytopes in dimensions $n \geq 4$ grows unboundedly with the number of vertices. This result implies that Input Convex Neural Networks (ICNNs) cannot represent all convex CPWL functions with a fixed depth, revealing a sharp separation in expressivity between ICNNs and standard ReLU networks.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

DeepSPoC: A Deep Learning Based Sequential Propagation of Chaos

Classical particle methods based on propagation of chaos (PoC) have been developed for solving mean-field stochastic differential equations and their associated nonlinear Fokker--Planck equations. However, direct PoC implementations are difficult to apply to high-dimensional problems because they require simulating and storing large numbers of interacting particles, often with high particle-particle interaction costs. Motivated by these limitations, we build on the recently proposed sequential propagation of chaos (SPoC) framework, which replaces the fully interacting particle system in PoC with a sequential interaction mechanism. Based on this structure, we present DeepSPoC, a neural particle method that embeds a neural density representation into the sequential particle dynamics. DeepSPoC simulates particles batch by batch, while the neural network represents the evolving empirical law and is substituted into the coefficients of the mean-field SDE, thereby replacing direct particle-particle interactions with particle-network interactions. In DeepSPoC, a recently developed normalizing flow model called KRnet is used to approximate the empirical measure of particles. Compared with direct particle implementations, DeepSPoC substantially reduces memory consumption and evaluates interaction terms more efficiently, thereby improving scalability for high-dimensional problems. We apply DeepSPoC to a wide range of mean-field equations and verify its effectiveness and computational advantages.

cs.LG↗