Predicting Barge Tow Size on Inland Waterways Using Vessel Trajectory Derived Features: Proof of Concept

Abstract

Accurate, real-time estimation of barge quantity on inland waterways remains a critical challenge due to the non-self-propelled nature of barges and the limitations of existing monitoring systems. This study introduces a novel method to use Automatic Identification System (AIS) vessel tracking data to predict the number of barges in tow using Machine Learning (ML). To train and test the model, barge instances were manually annotated from satellite scenes across the Lower Mississippi River. Labeled images were matched to AIS vessel tracks using a spatiotemporal matching procedure. A comprehensive set of 30 AIS-derived features capturing vessel geometry, dynamic movement, and trajectory patterns were created and evaluated using Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to identify the most predictive variables. Six regression models, including ensemble, kernel-based, and generalized linear approaches, were trained and evaluated. The Poisson Regressor model yielded the best performance, achieving a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.92 barges using 12 of the 30 features. The feature importance analysis revealed that metrics capturing vessel maneuverability such as course entropy, speed variability and trip length were most predictive of barge count. The proposed approach provides a scalable, readily implementable method for enhancing Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA), with strong potential applications in lock scheduling, port management, and freight planning. Future work will expand the proof of concept presented here to explore model transferability to other inland rivers with differing operational and environmental conditions.