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arXiv · 2510.24526

Bayesian nonparametric modeling of multivariate count data with an unknown number of traits

Lorenzo Ghilotti·Federico Camerlenghi·Tommaso Rigon·Michele Guindani
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Abstract

Feature and trait allocation models are fundamental objects in Bayesian nonparametrics and play a prominent role in several applications. Existing approaches, however, typically assume full exchangeability of the data, which may be restrictive in settings characterized by heterogeneous but related groups. In this paper, we introduce a general and tractable class of Bayesian nonparametric priors for partially exchangeable trait allocation models, relying on completely random vectors. We provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis, including closed-form expressions for marginal and posterior distributions, and illustrate the tractability of our framework in the cases of binary and Poisson-distributed traits. A distinctive aspect of our approach is that the number of traits is a random quantity, thereby allowing us to model and estimate unobserved traits. Building on these results, we also develop a novel mixture model that infers the group partition structure from the data, effectively clustering trait allocations. This extension generalizes Bayesian nonparametric latent class models and avoids the systematic overclustering that arises when the number of traits is assumed to be fixed. We demonstrate the practical usefulness of our methodology through an application to the `Ndrangheta criminal network from the Operazione Infinito investigation, where our model provides insights into the organization of illicit activities.

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Lorenzo Ghilotti, Federico Camerlenghi, Tommaso Rigon, Michele Guindani. 2025-11-07. Bayesian nonparametric modeling of multivariate count data with an unknown number of traits. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.24526

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