Inferring Mobility Reductions from COVID-19 Disease Spread along the Urban-Rural Gradient

Sydney Paltra; Jonas Dehning; Viola Priesemann; Kai Nagel

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arXiv · 2510.25424

Inferring Mobility Reductions from COVID-19 Disease Spread along the Urban-Rural Gradient

Sydney Paltra·Jonas Dehning·Viola Priesemann·Kai Nagel

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped human mobility through policy interventions and voluntary behavioral changes. Mobility adaptions helped mitigate pandemic spread, however our knowledge which environmental, social, and demographic factors helped mobility reduction and pandemic mitigation is patchy. We introduce a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify heterogeneity in mobility responses across time and space in Germany's 400 districts using anonymized mobile phone data. Decomposing mobility into a disease-responsive component and disease-independent factors (temperature, school vacations, public holidays) allows us to quantify the impact of each factor. We find significant differences in reaction to disease spread along the urban-rural gradient, with large cities reducing mobility most strongly. Employment sectors further help explain variance in reaction strength during the first wave, while political variables gain significance during the second wave. However, reduced mobility only partially translates to lower peak incidence, indicating the influence of other hidden factors. Our results identify key drivers of mobility reductions and demonstrate that mobility behavior can serve as an operational proxy for population response.

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Sydney Paltra, Jonas Dehning, Viola Priesemann, Kai Nagel. 2025-10-29. Inferring Mobility Reductions from COVID-19 Disease Spread along the Urban-Rural Gradient. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.25424

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