Toward a Phenomenological Theory of Earthquakes

A. V. Guglielmi

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arXiv · 2510.26158

Toward a Phenomenological Theory of Earthquakes

A. V. Guglielmi

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Abstract

An attempt to construct a phenomenological theory of earthquakes is being undertaken by a small research team, which includes the author. We have only taken the first steps towards goal, but the results already obtained convincingly demonstrate the feasibility of the project. This paper is a kind of commentary on the path taken. The paper explains the essence and character of phenomenological theory. It also contains critical comments on alternative approaches to describing earthquakes. The theory is based on the concept of an earthquake source as a dynamic system, the state of which is described by a small number of phenomenological parameters. Within the framework of elementary theory, the source is described by one parameter, called the deactivation coefficient. The most important concept of the proper time of the source has been introduced, the course of which, generally speaking, differs from the course of world time. Dynamic equations describing the evolution of the source are given. The inverse problem of the source is posed, the essence of which is to calculate the phenomenological parameters based on earthquake observation data. Elementary phenomenological theory has already become a practical tool for the experimenter studying specific earthquake time series. The Appendix provides a list of previously unknown properties and patterns of earthquakes that we discovered within the framework of elementary theory. At the same time, it is noted that phenomenology itself does not lead us to a deep understanding of the essence of earthquakes. Sooner or later, the results of a complex of geophysical and physical-mathematical disciplines will lead to such an understanding. We place particular hopes on the theory of phase transitions and the mathematical theory of catastrophes.

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A. V. Guglielmi. 2025-10-30. Toward a Phenomenological Theory of Earthquakes. https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.26158

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