Stochastic Models and Estimation of Undetected Infections in the Transmission of Zika Virus

Lillian Achola Oluoch; Florent Ouabo Kamkumo; Ralf Wunderlich

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arXiv · 2511.01920

Stochastic Models and Estimation of Undetected Infections in the Transmission of Zika Virus

Lillian Achola Oluoch·Florent Ouabo Kamkumo·Ralf Wunderlich

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Abstract

Zika fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease with potential severe neurological complications and birth defects, remains a significant public health concern. The epidemiological models often oversimplify the dynamics of Zika transmission by assuming immediate detection of all infected cases. This study provides an enhanced SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model to incorporate partial information by distinguishing between detected and undetected Zika infections (also known as "dark figures"). By distinguishing the compartments, the model captures the complexities of disease spread by accounting for uncertainties about transmission and the number of undetected infections. This model implements the Kalman filter technique to estimate the hidden states from the observed states. Numerical simulations were performed to understand the dynamics of Zika transmission and real-world data was utilized for parameterization and validation of the model. The study aims to provide information on the impact of undetected Zika infections on disease spread within the population, which will contribute to evidence-based decision making in public health policy and practice.

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Lillian Achola Oluoch, Florent Ouabo Kamkumo, Ralf Wunderlich. 2025-11-01. Stochastic Models and Estimation of Undetected Infections in the Transmission of Zika Virus. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.01920

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