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arXiv · 2511.04912

Election and Subjective Well-Being:Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

Dongyoung Kim·Young-Il Albert Kim·Haedong Aiden Rho
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Abstract

This paper uses daily Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to estimate the causal effect of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, a highly competitive race whose outcome resolved lingering uncertainty on election day, on mental-health and life-satisfaction outcomes through a regression discontinuity design. Following the resolution of electoral uncertainty on election day, we find a sharp and persistent post-election decline in subjective well-being, concentrated among female, non-White, urban, and more-educated respondents. These findings reveal an expected-outcome shock, showing that political polarization itself, not electoral surprise, can act as a chronic psychological stressor.

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Dongyoung Kim, Young-Il Albert Kim, Haedong Aiden Rho. 2025-11-07. Election and Subjective Well-Being:Evidence from the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.04912

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