FOS: A Large-Scale Temporal Graph Benchmark for Scientific Interdisciplinary Link Prediction

Kiyan Rezaee; Morteza Ziabakhsh; Niloofar Nikfarjam; Mohammad M. Ghassemi; Yazdan Rezaee Jouryabi; Sadegh Eskandari; Reza Lashgari

arXiv · 2511.18631

FOS: A Large-Scale Temporal Graph Benchmark for Scientific Interdisciplinary Link Prediction

Kiyan Rezaee·Morteza Ziabakhsh·Niloofar Nikfarjam·Mohammad M. Ghassemi·Yazdan Rezaee Jouryabi·Sadegh Eskandari·Reza Lashgari

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Abstract

Interdisciplinary scientific breakthroughs mostly emerge unexpectedly, and forecasting the formation of novel research fields remains a major challenge. We introduce FOS (Future Of Science), a comprehensive time-aware graph-based benchmark that reconstructs annual co-occurrence graphs of 65,027 research sub-fields (spanning 19 general domains) over the period 1827-2024. In these graphs, edges denote the co-occurrence of two fields in a single publication and are timestamped with the corresponding publication year. Nodes are enriched with semantic embeddings, and edges are characterized by temporal and topological descriptors. We formulate the prediction of new field-pair linkages as a temporal link-prediction task, emphasizing the "first-time" connections that signify pioneering interdisciplinary directions. Through extensive experiments, we evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art temporal graph architectures under multiple negative-sampling regimes and show that (i) embedding long-form textual descriptions of fields significantly boosts prediction accuracy, and (ii) distinct model classes excel under different evaluation settings. Case analyses show that top-ranked link predictions on FOS align with field pairings that emerge in subsequent years of academic publications. We publicly release FOS, along with its temporal data splits and evaluation code, to establish a reproducible benchmark for advancing research in predicting scientific frontiers.

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Kiyan Rezaee, Morteza Ziabakhsh, Niloofar Nikfarjam, Mohammad M. Ghassemi, Yazdan Rezaee Jouryabi, Sadegh Eskandari, Reza Lashgari. 2025-11-23. FOS: A Large-Scale Temporal Graph Benchmark for Scientific Interdisciplinary Link Prediction. https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.18631

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