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arXiv · 2512.22678

Climate change alters teleconnections

Eran Vos·Peter Huybers·Eli Tziperman
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Abstract

Internal modes of climate variability, such as El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation, can have strong influences upon distant weather patterns, effects that are referred to as "teleconnections". The extent to which anthropogenic climate change has and will continue to affect these teleconnections, however, remains uncertain. Here, we employ a covariance fingerprinting approach to demonstrate that shifts in teleconnection patterns affecting monthly temperatures between the periods 1960-1990 and 1990-2020 are attributable to anthropogenic forcing. We further apply multilinear regression to assess the regional contributions and statistical significance of changes in five key climate modes: the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In many regions, observed changes exceed what would be expected from natural variability alone, further implicating an anthropogenic influence. Finally, we provide projections of how these teleconnections will alter in response to further changes in climate.

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Eran Vos, Peter Huybers, Eli Tziperman. 2025-12-27. Climate change alters teleconnections. https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.22678

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