Forecasting ICT-Driven Trade Competitiveness 2024-2028: A Cluster and Scenario Analysis

Abstract

This study introduces the Digital Competitiveness Index for Trade (DCIT), a composite metric integrating ICT readiness, broadband adoption, GDP per capita, foreign direct investment, government effectiveness, and trade volume to assess countries' digital trade competitiveness. The index captures the enabling conditions -- ICT innovation capacity, broadband diffusion, investment intensity, and macroeconomic fundamentals - that shape a nation's ability to participate in digital trade. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates strong robustness: adjusting ICT-FDI weights alters DCIT outcomes by only 26%, with near perfect linearity (R^2 = 0.9996). Predictive validation shows that DCIT is a strong explainer of trade connectivity growth (R^2 = 0.67) but a modest predictor of GDP expansion. Scenario simulations reveal that combined ICT and FDI acceleration consistently outperforms single-lever strategies, with gains increasing by cluster maturity (up to 10% in advanced clusters). High-growth scenarios generate a 50-60% uplift in competitiveness for mid-tier and advanced clusters, underscoring the importance of integrated digital investment strategies.