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arXiv · 2601.04434

Reconstructing MSM Sexual Networks to Guide PrEP Distribution Strategies for HIV Prevention

João Brázia·István Z. Kiss·Alexandre P. Francisco·Andreia Sofia Teixeira
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Abstract

Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain disproportionately affected by HIV, yet optimizing Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) distribution remains a public health challenge. Current guidelines and most modelling studies do not incorporate sociodemographic or network-level factors that shape transmission. While network reconstruction from egocentric data has been studied, the relative importance of demographic mixing dimensions remains uncertain. Using data from 4,667 MSM participants, we show that uncertainty in network reconstruction from egocentric survey data - specifically whether assortativity by age or race is incorporated - affects simulated HIV prevalence under the same observed PrEP uptake. We simulate HIV transmission over 50 years across this structural space and evaluate whether empirically observed uptake reaches transmission-critical network positions. Network structure strongly influences outcomes: assortative by degree networks show 17% lower equilibrium prevalence due to hub isolation within communities. Targeted PrEP strategies based on degree or k-shell centrality achieved the highest prevalence reductions, particularly in assortative by age and race networks where hubs bridge demographic groups. PrEP uptake from data is suboptimal in assortative by age and race networks, underperforming compared with network-based strategies. Results demonstrate that uncertainty in network reconstruction affects intervention design and highlight the need for robust prevention strategies under structural ambiguity.

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João Brázia, István Z. Kiss, Alexandre P. Francisco, Andreia Sofia Teixeira. 2026-03-16. Reconstructing MSM Sexual Networks to Guide PrEP Distribution Strategies for HIV Prevention. https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.04434

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