Modeling and analysis of a novel two-strain dengue epidemics model considering secondary infections with increased mortality

Abstract

In this study, we develop and analyze a deterministic two-strain host-vector model for dengue transmission that incorporates key immuno-epidemiological mechanisms, including temporary cross-immunity, antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), disease-induced mortality during secondary infections, and explicit vector co-infection. The human population is divided into compartments for primary and secondary infections, while the mosquito population includes single- and co-infected classes. ADE is modeled through distinct primary ($α$) and secondary ($σ$) transmission rates. Using the next-generation matrix method, we derive the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and establish the local stability of the disease-free equilibrium for $R_0 < 1$. Analytical results show that one-strain endemic equilibria lose stability under ADE conditions ($σ> α$), allowing invasion by a heterologous strain. Employing center-manifold theory and numerical continuation (COCO), we demonstrate the occurrence of backward bifurcation, bistability between disease-free and endemic states, and Hopf-induced oscillations. Numerical simulations confirm transitions among disease-free, endemic, and periodic regimes as key parameters vary. The model highlights how ADE, waning cross-immunity, and vector co-infection interact to generate complex dengue dynamics and provides insights useful for designing effective control and vaccination strategies in dengue-endemic regions.