Destination Drone: A Comprehensive Analysis of Japanese Consumer Choice Behavior and Intentions for Drone Delivery Services

Abstract

The potential for drone delivery services to transform logistics systems and consumer behavior has gained increasing attention. However, comprehensive empirical evidence on consumer delivery choice behavior within the context of transportation and urban air logistics remains limited, particularly in Japan. This study addresses this gap by examining Japanese consumers' preferences and behavioral intentions toward drone delivery services. Using a stated preference (SP) survey and discrete choice modeling approaches, including multinomial logit (MNL) and mixed logit (MMNL) models, the analysis evaluates how delivery cost, delivery time, drop-off location, product type, and social influence affect delivery mode choices across different demographic groups. The results indicate that although consumers express interest in drone delivery, perceived cost and concerns related to reliability continue to constrain adoption. Younger and male consumers exhibit higher preferences for drone delivery, while product type, particularly daily consumer goods and medical or healthcare items, plays a significant role in shaping preferences. Post-estimation willingness-to-pay and elasticity analyses further highlight consumers' sensitivity to delivery pricing and speed attributes. Overall, the findings provide actionable insights for logistics service providers and policymakers regarding pricing strategies, service targeting, and deployment approaches for integrating drone delivery into Japan's evolving logistics system.