Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 2601.09872

A continuous-time Kyle model with price-responsive traders

Abstract

Classical Kyle-type models of informed trading typically treat noise trader demand as purely exogenous. In reality, many market participants react to price movements and news, generating feedback effects that can significantly alter market dynamics. This paper develops a continuous-time Kyle framework in which two types of price-responsive traders (momentum and contrarian traders) adjust their demand in response to price signals. This extension yields a finite-dimensional Kalman filter for price discovery and leads to a forward-backward Riccati system characterizing equilibrium. We show that when feedback is weak, equilibrium exists and is unique as a smooth perturbation of the classical Kyle solution, allowing us to derive explicit comparative statics for insider profits and price informativeness. For stronger feedback, the model generates rich dynamics, including potential multiplicity of equilibria and amplification effects. Our framework thus bridges the gap between purely exogenous noise and more realistic, behaviorally motivated trading.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Eunjung Noh. 2026-01-14. A continuous-time Kyle model with price-responsive traders. https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.09872

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

Asset price bubbles under model uncertainty and short-sale constraints: A discrete-time analysis

In this study, we investigate asset price bubbles in a discrete-time, discrete-state market under model uncertainty and short-sale constraints. Using a super-hedging valuation benchmark, we study the difference between the asset's market price and its fundamental value in this constrained market. We examine how assumptions on the liquidation time affect the conditional expectation bounds satisfied by the resulting bubble process. For assets with bounded maturity and no dividend payments, the G-supermartingale property of prices provides a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of bubbles. In contrast, when maturity is unbounded, the infi-supermartingale property yields a necessary condition, while the G-supermartingale property remains sufficient. We also show that no dominance rules out bubbles when the liquidation time is bounded. For finite-horizon contingent claims, we distinguish upper-valuation relations from no-dominance benchmarks. Fundamental prices satisfy put-call bounds, whereas market prices satisfy put-call parity under no dominance. In the dividend-free setting, the same assumptions imply equality between American and European call fundamental values and, under the stated trading conditions, between their market prices.

q-fin.MF

Optimal investment under capital gains taxes

We generalize classical existence results for expected utility maximization in discrete time frictionless market models to models with capital gains taxes. We consider the realistic but mathematically challenging rule that losses do not trigger negative taxes but can only be offset against potential gains in the future. Central to the analysis is a well-known phenomenon from arbitrage-free markets with proportional transaction costs that does not exist in arbitrage-free frictionless markets: an investment in specific quantities of stocks that is completely riskless but may provide an advantage over holding money in the bank account. As a result of this phenomenon, on an infinite probability space, no-arbitrage does not imply that the set of attainable terminal wealth is closed in probability. We provide simple sufficient conditions for closedness. Then, we characterize the closure of the set of attainable terminal wealth, thereby identifying precisely the source of non-closedness. As a by-product, we obtain a new construction for an integrable majorant that dominates the utilities of all nonnegative terminal wealth attainable from a given initial capital in a frictionless market and that works directly in multiperiod models.

q-fin.MF

Proof of Stake economy under centralized exchanges--a mean field model

We consider the interaction between centralized trading and decentralized Proof of Stake (PoS) blockchain ecosystems. Motivated by the increasing dominance of centralized exchanges and the institutionalization of crypto markets, we study how trading activities on centralized exchanges affect staking behavior, token allocation, and decentralization within a PoS blockchain. We formulate a continuous-time mean field model, where the miners simultaneously act as validators in the PoS protocol and traders in a centralized market with price impact. Under suitable assumptions, we establish the local well-posedness of the mean field system, and derive a semi-explicit characterization of the equilibrium trading strategy. Numerical results suggest that centralized trading activities may enhance staking participation, and promote decentralization of the staking distribution through market incentives. We also study the effects of transaction costs and token supply mechanisms on the equilibrium staking ratio and concentration profile. These results illustrate how market microstructure and centralized liquidity provision can exert significant influence on decentralized blockchain protocols.

q-fin.MF