Conservation priority mapping to prevent zoonotic spillovers

Abstract

Diseases originating from wildlife pose a significant threat to global health, causing human and economic losses each year. The transmission of disease from animals to humans occurs at the interface between humans, livestock, and wildlife reservoirs, influenced by abiotic factors and ecological mechanisms. Although evidence suggests that intact ecosystems can reduce transmission, disease prevention has largely been neglected in conservation efforts and remains underfunded compared to mitigation. A major constraint is the lack of reliable, spatially explicit information to guide efforts effectively. Given the increasing rate of new disease emergence, accelerated by climate change and biodiversity loss, identifying priority areas for mitigating the risk of disease transmission is more crucial than ever. We present new high-resolution (1 km) maps of priority areas for targeted ecological countermeasures aimed at reducing the likelihood of zoonotic spillover, along with a methodology adaptable to local contexts. Our study compiles data on well-documented risk factors, protection status, forest restoration potential, and opportunity cost of the land to map areas with high potential for cost-effective interventions. We identify low-cost priority areas across 50 countries, including 277,000 km2 where environmental restoration could mitigate the risk of zoonotic spillover and 198,000 km2 where preventing deforestation could do the same, 95% of which are not currently under protection. The resulting layers, covering tropical regions globally, are freely available alongside an interactive no-code platform that allows users to adjust parameters and identify priority areas at multiple scales. Ecological countermeasures can be a cost-effective strategy for reducing the emergence of new pathogens; however, our study highlights the extent to which current conservation efforts fall short of this goal.