Collaborative Decision-Making and Optimal Utilization of Pathfinding Flights during Convective Weather

Abstract

Air traffic operations are strongly influenced by convective weather, and one common response is pathfinder operations, in which a designated aircraft tests the viability of weather-impacted airspace and routes. Despite relatively routine use in practice, how pathfinder operations evolve under uncertainty and how the pathfinder decision-making process unfolds are largely treated as exogenous. Addressing this gap requires jointly modeling weather-driven system accessibility, flight responses to pathfinder offers, and the sequencing of those offers to improve outcomes. We develop a unified analytical framework that connects weather-driven system state transitions, flight acceptance decisions, and the sequencing of pathfinder offers. We first construct a four-state Markov chain to model stochastic closure and reopening of exit points, or fixes, out of the terminal departure airspace surrounding a major airport, pathfinder selection, and pathfinding execution, and analyze its steady-state behavior to characterize long-term capacity and delay implications. We introduce utility-based decision models for flights, air traffic control (ATC), and dispatchers, and analyze worst-case collective rejection to quantify system vulnerability under selfless behavior and uncertainty. Finally, we formulate optimization problems that model ATC-initiated and dispatcher-initated pathfinder offers, with the goal of optimizing the sequence of pathfinder offers. Using a discrete event simulation for a major US airport, we show that ATC- and dispatcher-driven objectives lead to distinct, near real-time sequencing strategies, providing the first formal decision models for pathfinder operations under weather uncertainty.