A spatial random forest algorithm for population-level epidemiological risk assessment

Duncan Lee; Vinny Davies

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arXiv · 2602.02277

A spatial random forest algorithm for population-level epidemiological risk assessment

Duncan Lee·Vinny Davies

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Abstract

Spatial epidemiology identifies the drivers of elevated population-level disease risks, using disease counts, exposures and known confounders at the areal unit level. Poisson regression models are typically used for inference, which incorporate a linear/additive regression component and allow for unmeasured confounding via a set of spatially autocorrelated random effects. This approach requires the confounder interactions and their functional relationships with disease risk to be specified in advance, rather than being learned from the data. Therefore, this paper proposes the SPAR-Forest-ERF algorithm, which is the first fusion of random forests for capturing non-linear and interacting confounder-response effects with Bayesian spatial autocorrelation models that can estimate interpretable exposure response functions (ERF) with full uncertainty quantification. Methodologically, we extend existing methods set in a prediction context by propagating uncertainty between both the ML and statistical models, developing a new stopping criteria designed to ensure the stability of the primary inferential target, and incorporating a range of different ERFs for maximum model flexibility. This methodology is motivated by a new study quantifying the impact of air pollution concentrations on self-rated health in Scotland, using data from the recently released 2022 national census.

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Duncan Lee, Vinny Davies. 2026-02-02. A spatial random forest algorithm for population-level epidemiological risk assessment. https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.02277

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