Modelling Socio-Psychological Drivers of Land Management Intensity

Abstract

Land management intensity shapes ecosystem service provision, socio-ecological resilience and is central to sustainable transformation. Yet most land use models emphasise economic and biophysical drivers, while socio-psychological factors influencing land managers' decisions remain underrepresented despite increasing evidence that they shape land management choices. To address this gap, we develop a generic behavioural extension for agent-based land use models, guided by the Theory of Planned Behaviour as an overarching conceptual framework. The extension integrates environmental attitudes, descriptive social norms and behavioural inertia into land managers' decisions on land management intensity. To demonstrate applicability, the extension is coupled to an existing land use modelling framework and explored in stylised settings to isolate behavioural mechanisms. Results show that socio-psychological drivers can significantly alter land management intensity shares, landscape configuration, and ecosystem service provision. Nonlinear feedbacks between these drivers, spatial resource heterogeneity, and ecosystem service demand lead to emergent dynamics that are sometimes counter-intuitive and can diverge from the agent-level decision rules. Increasing the influence of social norms generates spatial clustering and higher landscape connectivity, while feedbacks between behavioural factors can lead to path dependence, lock-in effects, and the emergence of multiple stable regimes with sharp transitions. The proposed framework demonstrates how even low levels of behavioural diversity and social interactions can reshape system-level land use outcomes and provides a reusable modelling component for incorporating socio-psychological processes into land use simulations. The approach can be integrated into other agent-based land use models and parameterised empirically in future work.