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arXiv · 2602.21634

AgentLTV: An Agent-Based Unified Search-and-Evolution Framework for Automated Lifetime Value Prediction

Chaowei Wu·Huazhu Chen·Congde Yuan·Qirui Yang·Guoqing Song·Yue Gao·Li Luo·Frank Youhua Chen·Mengzhuo Guo
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Abstract

Lifetime Value (LTV) prediction is critical in advertising, recommender systems, and e-commerce. In practice, LTV data patterns vary across decision scenarios. As a result, practitioners often build complex, scenario-specific pipelines and iterate over feature processing, objective design, and tuning. This process is expensive and hard to transfer. We propose AgentLTV, an agent-based unified search-and-evolution framework for automated LTV modeling. AgentLTV treats each candidate solution as an {executable pipeline program}. LLM-driven agents generate code, run and repair pipelines, and analyze execution feedback. Two decision agents coordinate a two-stage search. The Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) stage explores a broad space of modeling choices under a fixed budget, guided by the Polynomial Upper Confidence bounds for Trees criterion and a Pareto-aware multi-metric value function. The Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) stage refines the best MCTS program via island-based evolution with crossover, mutation, and migration. Experiments on a large-scale proprietary dataset and a public benchmark show that AgentLTV consistently discovers strong models across ranking and error metrics. Online bucket-level analysis further indicates improved ranking consistency and value calibration, especially for high-value and negative-LTV segments. We summarize practitioner-oriented takeaways: use MCTS for rapid adaptation to new data patterns, use EA for stable refinement, and validate deployment readiness with bucket-level ranking and calibration diagnostics. The proposed AgentLTV has been successfully deployed online.

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Chaowei Wu, Huazhu Chen, Congde Yuan, Qirui Yang, Guoqing Song, Yue Gao, Li Luo, Frank Youhua Chen, Mengzhuo Guo. 2026-02-25. AgentLTV: An Agent-Based Unified Search-and-Evolution Framework for Automated Lifetime Value Prediction. https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.21634

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