Two-Stage Photovoltaic Forecasting: Separating Weather Prediction from Plant-Characteristics

Philipp Danner; Hermann de Meer

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arXiv · 2603.04132

Two-Stage Photovoltaic Forecasting: Separating Weather Prediction from Plant-Characteristics

Philipp Danner·Hermann de Meer

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Abstract

Several energy management applications rely on accurate photovoltaic generation forecasts. Common metrics like mean absolute error or root-mean-square error, omit error-distribution details needed for stochastic optimization. In addition, several approaches use weather forecasts as inputs without analyzing the source of the prediction error. To overcome this gap, we decompose forecasting into a weather forecast model for environmental parameters such as solar irradiance and temperature and a plant characteristic model that captures site-specific parameters like panel orientation, temperature influence, or regular shading. Satellite-based weather observation serves as an intermediate layer. We analyze the error distribution of the high-resolution rapid-refresh numerical weather prediction model that covers the United States as a black-box model for weather forecasting and train an ensemble of neural networks on historical power output data for the plant characteristic model. Results show mean absolute error increases by 11% and 68% for two selected photovoltaic systems when using weather forecasts instead of satellite-based ground-truth weather observations as a perfect forecast. The generalized hyperbolic and Student's t distributions adequately fit the forecast errors across lead times.

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Philipp Danner, Hermann de Meer. 2026-03-04. Two-Stage Photovoltaic Forecasting: Separating Weather Prediction from Plant-Characteristics. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.04132

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