The Potential for an Innovation Winter: Estimating Impact of Federal Research Reductions on Faculty Activity

Abstract

The proposed reductions in federal research support proposed by the Trump Administration for 2026 would profoundly degrade the United States research universities, especially in the STEM fields and medicine (STEMM). A potentially devastating consequence would be on the funding distribution for individual faculty. Data and stochastic modeling demonstrate that the result would be large fractions of previously research active faculty having subcritical research support. Research expenditure data from Boston University suggests that the funding distribution has a heavy tail (a Pareto like distribution)where a relatively small number of faculty have responsibility for a large fraction of the funding and that another fraction have minimal external support. A log normal distribution fits the expenditure data, and a multiplicative stochastic model replicates the spending distributions for the STEMM faculty and, separately, the engineering faculty. Using data for the average expenditures by 146 R1 (very research intensive) engineering schools, the model predicts that the 40 percent funding reduction proposed by the Administration would increase from 26 to 47 percent the number of R1 universities with over half their faculty with less than 100,000 dollars of annual expenditures, if the reduction affects all equally. If the most research intensive universities win a disproportionate share, this percentage of universities jumps to almost 60. In such an environment, and in the face of other cost pressures, it would be difficult to maintain quality research and doctoral programs across many institutions, raising important questions about their optimal research strategy and organization if faced with this declining support. Ideas for navigating such a future are presented.