Rate-Induced Tipping in a Non-Uniformly Moving Habitat and Determination of the Critical Rate

Abstract

A habitat that is moving due to environmental change may result in tipping to extinction if the rate at which it moves is too great. We use a scalar reaction-diffusion equation with a non-autonomous reaction term, representing a spatially localized habitat moving from one asymptotic location to another, as a context for studying this phenomenon. The movement is characterized by displacement $d$ and rate parameter $r$. The system admits three steady states in both asymptotic habitat locations: a stable extinction state $u_0^*=0$, an unstable pulse (so-called edge state) $u_1^*(x)>0$, which gives rise to the Allee effect, and a stable pulse (populated base state) $u_2^*(x)>u_1^*(x)$, which corresponds to a thriving population at its carrying capacity. Numerical simulations for a specific model identify a critical displacement $d^*$ and, for $d > d^*$, demonstrate the existence of a \textit{critical rate} $r_c(d)$ at which rate-induced tipping occurs: for $r> r_c$ an initially thriving population becomes extinct due to habitat movement being too rapid. We provide analytical results for two limiting cases. For $r\ll 1$, solutions track the moving base state with error $O(r)$. For $r\gg 1$, solutions converge to the extinction state provided $d$ is sufficiently large. For $d$ too small, no tipping occurs regardless of $r$. Numerical simulations complement and extend these analytical results. At the critical rate $r=r_c(d)$, we identify a pulse-to-pulse heteroclinic connection between the base state at the past asymptotic location and the edge state at the future asymptotic location of the habitat. We also establish the uniqueness of this critical rate and non-degeneracy of the heteroclinic connection as $r$ varies.