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arXiv · 2603.11577

Regular and chaotic Welander oscillations in a four-dimensional conceptual model for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

John Bailie·Priya Subramanian·Bernd Krauskopf
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Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the Earth's climate. Evidence indicates a twentieth-century weakening, and enhanced freshwater input to the subpolar North Atlantic may further reduce overturning strength. We present and study a conceptual four-dimensional, single-hemisphere box model with three compartments: a tropical surface box, a subpolar surface box, and a large deep-water box. Advective exchange couples the surface boxes and vertical exchange with the deep ocean is represented by a smooth convective-adjustment scheme. A comprehensive bifurcation analysis reveals an equilibrium structure with up to four coexisting overturning states, together with regimes of bistability and tristability. We identify families of periodic solutions and chaotic attractors with a clear timescale separation: a millennial oscillation is modulated by faster decadal-to-centennial variability arising from episodic shutdowns of subpolar convection. As prescribed freshwater fluxes increase, shutdown events become more frequent and the background overturning weakens. Additionally, for certain values of freshwater influx, the dynamics become chaotic, producing an irregular on-off switching of convection.

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John Bailie, Priya Subramanian, Bernd Krauskopf. 2026-03-12. Regular and chaotic Welander oscillations in a four-dimensional conceptual model for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.11577

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