Online Learning of Strategic Defense against Ecological Adversaries under Partial Observability with Semi-Bandit Feedback

Anjali Purathekandy; Deepak N. Subramani

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arXiv · 2603.11726

Online Learning of Strategic Defense against Ecological Adversaries under Partial Observability with Semi-Bandit Feedback

Anjali Purathekandy·Deepak N. Subramani

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Abstract

We introduce an online learning algorithm for computing adaptive resource allocation policies against strategic ecological adversaries with unknown behavioral models and partial observability. Our setting addresses a fundamental limitation of security games: when adversary behavior cannot be modeled a priori, classical equilibrium-based approaches fail. We formulate the problem as regret minimization in a combinatorial action space with semi-bandit feedback, where payoffs are non-stationary and interdependent across targets. Our algorithm, named HERDS (Human-Elephant conflict mitigation through Resource Deployment for Strategic guarding), extends Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader (FPL) with three innovations: (1) simultaneous exploration-exploitation through dynamic budget partitioning driven by observed losses, (2) adaptive payoff estimation under confounded observations where attack entry points are unidentifiable, and (3) model-agnostic learning that provides regret guarantees without behavioral assumptions. We demonstrate our framework on Human-Elephant Conflict mitigation, a domain where intelligent ecological adversaries exhibit strategic behavior (optimal foraging, spatial memory, adaptive evasion) yet lack tractable behavioral models. Experiments using an Agent-Based Model calibrated with elephant movement data demonstrate 15--45% regret reduction versus Follow-the-Perturbed-Leader with Uniform-Exploration (FPL-UE), 40--50% crop damage reduction against adaptive adversaries, and convergence in 40--50 rounds versus 60--80 for baselines.

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Anjali Purathekandy, Deepak N. Subramani. 2026-03-12. Online Learning of Strategic Defense against Ecological Adversaries under Partial Observability with Semi-Bandit Feedback. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.11726

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