Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2603.18642

Evaluating Model-Free Policy Optimization in Masked-Action Environments via an Exact Blackjack Oracle

Kevin Song
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

Infinite-shoe casino blackjack provides a rigorous, exactly verifiable benchmark for discrete stochastic control under dynamically masked actions. Under a fixed Vegas-style ruleset (S17, 3:2 payout, dealer peek, double on any two, double after split, resplit to four), an exact dynamic programming (DP) oracle was derived over 4,600 canonical decision cells. This oracle yielded ground-truth action values, optimal policy labels, and a theoretical expected value (EV) of -0.00161 per hand. To evaluate sample-efficient policy recovery, three model-free optimizers were trained via simulated interaction: masked REINFORCE with a per-cell exponential moving average baseline, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA), and the cross-entropy method (CEM). REINFORCE was the most sample-efficient, achieving a 46.37% action-match rate and an EV of -0.04688 after 10^6 hands, outperforming CEM (39.46%, 7.5x10^6 evaluations) and SPSA (38.63%, 4.8x10^6 evaluations). However, all methods exhibited substantial cell-conditional regret, indicating persistent policy-level errors despite smooth reward convergence. This gap shows that tabular environments with severe state-visitation sparsity and dynamic action masking remain challenging, while aggregate reward curves can obscure critical local failures. As a negative control, it was proven and empirically confirmed that under i.i.d. draws without counting, optimal bet sizing collapses to the table minimum. In addition, larger wagers strictly increased volatility and ruin without improving expectation. These results highlight the need for exact oracles and negative controls to avoid mistaking stochastic variability for genuine algorithmic performance.

Explore related subjects

cs.LG

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Kevin Song. 2026-03-19. Evaluating Model-Free Policy Optimization in Masked-Action Environments via an Exact Blackjack Oracle. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.18642

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Online Regularized Statistical Learning in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space With Non-Stationary Data

We study recursive regularized learning algorithms in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) with non-stationary online data streams. We introduce the concept of a random Tikhonov regularization path and decompose the tracking error of the algorithm's output for the regularization path into random difference equations in RKHS. We show that the tracking error vanishes in mean square and almost surely if the regularization path is slowly time-varying. Then, leveraging the monotonicity of inverse operators and the spectral decomposition of compact operators, and introducing the RKHS persistence of excitation condition, we develop a dominated convergence method to prove the mean square and almost sure consistency between the regularization path and the unknown function to be learned. Especially, for independent and non-identically distributed data streams, the mean square and almost sure consistency between the algorithm's output and the unknown function is achieved if the input data's marginal probability measures are slowly time-varying and the average measure over each fixed-length time period is uniformly above a strictly positive finite Borel measure.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Reflective Policy Optimization

On-policy reinforcement learning methods, like Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO) and Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO), often demand extensive data per update, leading to sample inefficiency. This paper introduces Reflective Policy Optimization (RPO), a novel on-policy extension that amalgamates past and future state-action information for policy optimization. This approach empowers the agent for introspection, allowing modifications to its actions within the current state. Theoretical analysis confirms that policy performance is monotonically improved and contracts the solution space, consequently expediting the convergence procedure. Empirical results demonstrate RPO's feasibility and efficacy in two reinforcement learning benchmarks, culminating in superior sample efficiency. The source code of this work is available at https://github.com/Edgargan/RPO.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Transductive Off-policy Proximal Policy Optimization

Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) is a popular model-free reinforcement learning algorithm, esteemed for its simplicity and efficacy. However, due to its inherent on-policy nature, its proficiency in harnessing data from disparate policies is constrained. This paper introduces a novel off-policy extension to the original PPO method, christened Transductive Off-policy PPO (ToPPO). Herein, we provide theoretical justification for incorporating off-policy data in PPO training and prudent guidelines for its safe application. Our contribution includes a novel formulation of the policy improvement lower bound for prospective policies derived from off-policy data, accompanied by a computationally efficient mechanism to optimize this bound, underpinned by assurances of monotonic improvement. Comprehensive experimental results across six representative tasks underscore ToPPO's promising performance.

cs.LG↗