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arXiv · 2603.21044

Risk Capacity and Optimal Monetary Policy

Rui Sun
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Abstract

We characterize optimal monetary policy when policy endogenously moves risk premia through redistribution across agents who differ in their willingness to bear risk. The analytical core is Marginal Risk Capacity, the covariance of monetary policy exposures with marginal propensities to take risk. This sufficient statistic governs this channel as MPCs govern the consumption channel. MRC enters the Ramsey criterion as a risk premium wedge that breaks divine coincidence, vanishes if and only if macroprudential tools are available, and generates a new inflation bias under discretion. Solving the Ramsey problem globally reveals a risk capacity trap where transmission collapses, and optimal policy preemptively prevents it.

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Rui Sun. 2026-03-22. Risk Capacity and Optimal Monetary Policy. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.21044

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