MISApp: Multi-Hop Intent-Aware Session Graph Learning for Next App Prediction

Abstract

Predicting the next mobile app a user will launch is essential for proactive mobile services. Yet accurate prediction remains challenging in real-world settings, where user intent can shift rapidly within short sessions and user-specific historical profiles are often sparse or unavailable, especially under cold-start conditions. Existing approaches mainly model app usage as sequential behavior or local session transitions, limiting their ability to capture higher-order structural dependencies and evolving session intent. To address this issue, we propose MISApp, a profile-free framework for next app prediction based on multi-hop session graph learning. MISApp constructs multi-hop session graphs to capture transition dependencies at different structural ranges, learns session representations through lightweight graph propagation, incorporates temporal context and similarity-based spatial categorization to characterize session conditions, and captures intent evolution from recent interactions. Experiments on two real-world app usage datasets show that MISApp consistently outperforms competitive baselines under both standard and cold-start settings, while maintaining a favorable balance between predictive accuracy and practical efficiency. Further analyses show that multi-hop relations capture higher-hop-specific predictive signals beyond direct 1-Hop adjacency, and that the learned hop-level attention weights align well with structural relevance, providing both empirical and interpretable evidence for the effectiveness of the proposed multi-hop modeling strategy.