Heatwave-Related Mortality Across Indian Cities Under Future Climate Scenarios

Abstract

Heatwaves are intensifying as a major climate extreme and have emerged as a growing public health threat in rapidly urbanizing regions such as India. In this study, we integrate long-term heat-related mortality records (1970-2023) with bias-corrected CMIP6 climate projections to quantify future heatwave-related mortality across 67 Indian cities under intermediate (SSP2-4.5) and high-emission (SSP5-8.5) scenarios. A time-series forecasting framework was applied using summer mean temperature as the primary climate driver to project mortality trajectories through the end of the 21st century. Results indicate a strong and sustained increase in heat-related mortality under both scenarios, with multi-fold amplification under SSP5-8.5 relative to SSP2-4.5, reflecting the high sensitivity of health outcomes to emission pathways. Spatial analysis reveals increasing regional divergence under high-emission conditions, with urban regions in the Deccan Plateau, western India, and parts of eastern and northeastern India exhibiting disproportionately higher mortality growth. Multidimensional scaling further highlights emerging clustering of state-level mortality behavior under extreme warming, indicating structurally different regional responses to future heat stress. In contrast, the intermediate mitigation pathway produces more moderate and spatially uniform mortality trends. These findings demonstrate that climate mitigation can substantially reduce both the magnitude and inequality of future urban heat-health burdens. By linking updated climate projections with long-term mortality data at national and sub-national scales, this study provides policy-relevant evidence to support heat adaptation planning and climate-resilient urban development in one of the world's most heat-vulnerable regions.