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arXiv · 2604.00946

Near-Earth asteroids in Main Belt-crossing orbits

P. S. Zain·R. P. Di Sisto·R. Gil-Hutton
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Abstract

We study the dynamical and collisional evolution of Near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) in Main Belt-crossing orbits (NEACs). We select NEACs with H < 18 and integrate their orbits for 1e7 yr with N-body simulations. Objects are grouped by initial semi-major axis (G1: a < 2.06 au; G2: 2.06 < a < 2.5 au; G3: a > 2.5 au). We compute the fraction of each orbit spent within the main belt (MB), dynamical occupancy maps in the (a,e) plane, and median lifetimes. Using collisional evolution, we obtain size-dependent timescales, the change in the NEA size-frequency distribution (SFD) over 1 Myr, and impactor and crater SFDs on 150 m to 1 km targets, representative of NEAs visited by space missions. Median dynamical lifetimes decrease with increasing a: ~1.3e7 yr (G1), ~2.1e6 yr (G2), and ~0.9e6 yr (G3). NEACs in G2-G3 maintain nearly constant MB residence fractions with short intervals of full containment, while G1 exhibits stronger 0-0.8 oscillations (median ~0.55 for ~1e6 yr). DART-analog impacts occur on ~1e5 yr timescales for targets smaller than about 300 m (rising to ~1e6 yr for larger bodies), whereas catastrophic collisions are negligible within NEAC lifetimes. Over 1 Myr, collisional erosion reduces the meter-size NEA population by only 0.1-1.4% depending on Q_D*. Comparison with the observed crater SFDs on Bennu, Didymos, and Ryugu indicates target strengths of Y ~ 100 Pa for Bennu, young effective surface ages for Didymos, and short crater-retention times of order 1e4-1e5 yr for craters with diameters smaller than 100 m on Ryugu, consistent with rapid resurfacing. NEACs spend a substantial fraction of their lifetimes inside the MB and undergo frequent small-scale impacts, yet collisions weakly modify the global NEA SFD on Myr timescales. Our combined dynamical-collisional framework constrains NEAC lifetimes, orbital pathways, collisional timescales, and surface processing.

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P. S. Zain, R. P. Di Sisto, R. Gil-Hutton. 2026-04-01. Near-Earth asteroids in Main Belt-crossing orbits. https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361%2F202557332

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