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arXiv · 2604.07931

Robust Length Prediction: A Perspective from Heavy-Tailed Prompt-Conditioned Distributions

Jing Wang·Yu-Yang Qian·Ke Xue·Chao Qian·Peng Zhao·Zhi-Hua Zhou
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Abstract

Output-length prediction is important for efficient LLM serving, as it directly affects batching, memory reservation, and scheduling. For prompt-only length prediction, most existing methods use a one-shot sampled length as the label, implicitly treating each prompt as if it had one true target length. We show that this is unreliable: even under a fixed model and decoding setup, the same prompt induces a \emph{prompt-conditioned output length distribution}, not a deterministic scalar, and this distribution is consistent with \emph{heavy-tailed} behavior. Motivated by this, we cast length prediction as robust estimation from heavy-tailed prompt-conditioned length distributions. We propose prompt-conditioned length distribution (ProD) methods, which construct training targets from multiple independent generations of the same prompt. Two variants are developed to reuse the served LLM's hidden states: \mbox{ProD-M}, which uses a median-based target for robust point prediction, and ProD-D, which uses a distributional target that preserves prompt-conditioned uncertainty. We provide theoretical justifications by analyzing the estimation error under a surrogate model. Experiments across diverse scenarios show consistent gains in prediction quality.

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Jing Wang, Yu-Yang Qian, Ke Xue, Chao Qian, Peng Zhao, Zhi-Hua Zhou. 2026-04-09. Robust Length Prediction: A Perspective from Heavy-Tailed Prompt-Conditioned Distributions. https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.07931

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