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arXiv · 2604.08251

The Statistical Profitability of Social Media Sports Betting Influencers: Evidence from the Nigerian Market

Kayode Makinde·Oluwatimileyin Onasanya·Frances Adelakun
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Abstract

This study examines whether following popular Nigerian sports betting influencers on social media is a financially sound strategy. To avoid the survivorship bias that occurs when influencers only share their winning bets, we tracked 5,467 pre-match betting slips from three prominent tipsters on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram. We verified the outcomes against official Stake.com records, resulting in a final dataset covering approximately $4.8 million in tracked bets. We analyzed raw performance, assessed risk based on odds sizes, and applied four common staking strategies (Flat, Inverse, Square Root, and Fixed Return) to simulate realistic follower outcomes. The results show a sharp contrast between the wealth these influencers display online and the actual financial results. The influencers themselves collectively lost 25.24% on their promoted bets, while a follower who staked the same amount on every tip would lose 38.27% on their investment. Across all tested strategies, following these influencers consistently led to significant financial losses. These findings raise serious consumer protection concerns in Nigeria's expanding gambling market.

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Kayode Makinde, Oluwatimileyin Onasanya, Frances Adelakun. 2026-04-09. The Statistical Profitability of Social Media Sports Betting Influencers: Evidence from the Nigerian Market. https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.08251

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