Non-Asymptotic Performance Guarantees for MLE under a Gumbel-Softmax Index Model with Phaseless Measurements

Abstract

This paper studies the recovery of a complex-valued signal from index-only observations generated by a phaseless Gumbel-Softmax model. The model is motivated by limited-feedback frequency-division duplex massive MIMO systems, where it provides a smooth probabilistic surrogate for the deterministic hard-PMI selection rule. We consider a constrained maximum likelihood estimator and establish non-asymptotic statistical guarantees for its recovery performance. Under a bounded-design condition, we first derive a global excess-risk bound of order $\sqrt{d/T}$, which does not explicitly depend on the number of candidate indices. A quantitative local identifiability condition is then introduced to characterize the regime in which sharper local guarantees are available. Under this condition, the excess risk and squared parameter error both scale as $d/T$. The condition is further verified with high probability for a Haar--Stiefel random design, and a local minimax lower bound is established that matches the upper bound in its dependence on the sample size, signal dimension, temperature parameter, and signal norm, up to design-dependent factors. Numerical experiments on FDD downlink channel estimation demonstrate that the proposed likelihood-based approach can overall achieve superior reconstruction performance, supporting the effectiveness of the Gumbel-Softmax model as a surrogate for hard PMI feedback.