Host diversity and adaptive vector feeding preferences shape disease burden in vector-borne diseases

Abstract

Vector-borne diseases often involve multiple host species that differ in their ability to sustain transmission. At the same time, vector feeding preferences can change in response to host availability and disease-control interventions, potentially altering disease dynamics in unexpected ways. We develop a two-host vector-borne disease model that links host diversity, adaptive vector feeding preferences, and disease transmission. We demonstrate that the effect of host diversity on disease transmission is mediated by vector feeding behavior and cannot be inferred from host abundance alone. In particular, we identify a critical threshold, $R_{0c}$, that determines whether shifts in vector preference amplify or suppress disease burden in a focal host. This threshold marks a qualitative transition in system behavior and provides a basis for predicting epidemiological responses to changes in host composition and vector behavior. Using adaptive dynamics, we further show that vector populations may evolve toward either specialist or opportunistic feeding strategies depending on host encounter rates and trade-off strength. Finally, we demonstrate that host-targeted interventions can induce adaptive changes in vector feeding behavior that reduce prevalence in the protected host while potentially increasing overall infection burden. Our results highlight how evolutionary responses of vector population can generate unexpected epidemiological outcomes and should be considered when designing disease-control strategies.