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arXiv · 2605.07880

Robust Capacity Expansion under Wildfire Ignition Risk and High Renewable Penetration

Tomás Tapia·Ryan Piansky·Yury Dvorkin·Jean-Paul Watson
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Abstract

In power systems, the risk of wildfire ignition has increased significantly in recent years. The impact and severity of these events on energy dispatch, as well as their societal ramifications, make wildfire prevention critical for power system planning and operation. A common intervention by system operators is to de-energize transmission lines to mitigate the risk of fire caused by equipment failures. With the growing integration of variable renewable generation, managing and preparing the system to de-energization under wildfire risk has become even more challenging. In this context, mitigation decisions such as installing battery energy storage systems and undergrounding transmission lines can reduce the risk and adverse effects associated with de-energization and renewable generation variability. This paper presents a robust optimization model to determine the optimal location of battery storage and undergrounding of transmission line investment, utilizing representative weeks and uncertainty sets to capture the temporal relationship of uncertain variables. Specifically, this paper addresses: (i) the worst-case realization of ignition risk leading to the de-energization of transmission lines, combined with the worst-case realization of renewable energy availability, and (ii) the optimal investment decisions for energy storage capacity and undergrounding of transmission lines that are exposed to ignition risk. The proposed model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem, employing duality theory and binary decomposition to address nonlinearities, and is solved using a column-and-constraint generation algorithm. The proposed framework is evaluated on a model of the San Diego power system, demonstrating its practical effectiveness in improving the resilience to wildfire risk.

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Tomás Tapia, Ryan Piansky, Yury Dvorkin, Jean-Paul Watson. 2026-05-21. Robust Capacity Expansion under Wildfire Ignition Risk and High Renewable Penetration. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.07880

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