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arXiv · 2605.12738

Project Life Cycles in Open-Source Software

Sanjiv Das·Andrii Ieroshenko·Piyush Jain·David Qiu·Michael Chin·Brian Granger
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Abstract

Using methods previously applied to product life cycles, this paper models developer engagement through the project life cycle for open-source projects, and detects similar dynamics in a cross section of projects. Endogenous growth theory is used to model growth dynamics in open-source software engineering, while incorporating the interactions between growth levels and developer activity over time using systems of differential equations. The solution to this model calibrates well to many open-source projects. The model generates an estimate of the lifetime developer engagement and growth, which supports estimating a lifetime production value of open-source projects.

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Sanjiv Das, Andrii Ieroshenko, Piyush Jain, David Qiu, Michael Chin, Brian Granger. 2026-05-12. Project Life Cycles in Open-Source Software. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.12738

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