Search arXivSearch

arXiv · 2605.18742

A universal framework to identify eccentric binary mergers: GW200105 case study

Abstract

Orbital eccentricity in gravitational-wave signals from merging compact object binaries is a powerful indicator of their formation channel. Several binary black hole mergers and a neutron star--black hole merger have been reported to exhibit signs of eccentricity, but which events are identified and the significance of the eccentricity differs between studies. Measurements of eccentricity can change depending on the choice of prior. The choice of prior is subtle: eccentricity is commonly measured at an arbitrary reference frequency, which varies from study to study. We use the candidate eccentric neutron star--black hole merger GW200105_162426 as a case study, employing a range of priors and reference frequencies, and find the results to be strongly prior-driven. We show that the varied results reported across different studies can be partially reconciled by accounting for the evolution of eccentricity with reference frequency. In order to make conclusive statements about eccentricity, we propose a detection statistic that does not depend on reference frequency, and which marginalises over astrophysically-motivated distributions in eccentricity. Using this detection statistic, we find reduced support for the eccentric hypothesis for GW200105_162426: we obtain a natural log Bayes factor ln B $\leq$ 0.9 comparing the eccentric, aligned-spin hypothesis to the quasi-circular, precessing hypothesis. Our results cast doubt on the eccentric interpretation of GW200105_162426 and underscore the importance of modelling the astrophysical distributions of eccentricity in nature.

Explore related subjects

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Teagan A. Clarke, Isobel M. Romero-Shaw, Charlie Hoy, Jakob Stegmann, Paul D. Lasky, Eric Thrane. 2026-05-18. A universal framework to identify eccentric binary mergers: GW200105 case study. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.18742

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

GW231109_235456: A Sub-threshold Binary Neutron Star Merger in the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA O4a Observing Run?

We present a sub-threshold search for gravitational-wave inspirals from binary neutron stars using data from the first part of the fourth LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA observing run. To enhance sensitivity to this targeted population, we adopt a population prior informed by the Galactic double neutron star population observed via radio pulsar surveys and by the confirmed GW170817 event. The search, with a sensitivity ~60% higher than standard GWTC-4.0 searches, recovers the previously sub-threshold candidate GW231109_235456 (reported in GWTC-4.0) with a network signal-to-noise ratio of 9.7 and an improved false-alarm rate of 1 per 60 years. Accounting for a trials factor of five, arising from the four previous searches and this new search, the false-alarm rate of the candidate is approximately 1 per 12 years. If the event is of astrophysical origin, the inferred source properties indicate component masses of 1.40 to 2.24 solar masses for the primary and 0.97 to 1.49 solar masses for the secondary, yielding a total mass of 2.95 solar masses with an uncertainty of plus 0.38 and minus 0.07 solar masses. The event is localized to a region of 430 square degrees (90% probability) at a luminosity distance of 165 megaparsecs with an uncertainty of plus 70 and minus 69 megaparsecs. Assuming the signal arises from a binary neutron star merger, this event would contribute a local merger rate of 53 to 342 per cubic gigaparsec per year (90% credible interval).

astro-ph.HE

Gaussian-process evidence for a stochastic-variability transition in the recovering corona of 1ES 1927+654

We investigate the stochastic X-ray variability of the changing-look active galactic nucleus 1ES 1927+654 during its 2018--2024 evolution, focusing on the recovery of the X-ray corona after its 2018 collapse. Using XMM-Newton EPIC-pn light curves in the 0.3--2.0 keV and 2.0--10.0 keV bands, we model the variability with Gaussian process (GP) covariance components including Matérn-3/2, damped-random-walk (DRW), stochastically driven damped simple-harmonic-oscillator (SHO), and white-noise terms. Bayesian model comparison reveals an X-ray stochastic-variability transition during the changing-look recovery phase. In the 2019 May 5 observation, the preferred covariance changes from a Matérn-3/2-like state to a DRW-like state within a single continuous exposure. A phenomenological gated-kernel estimate localizes this transition sharply in the hard band at $t_c\simeq23.5~{\rm ks}$, while the soft band shows the same qualitative change over a broader interval. This transition occurs after the X-ray corona had reappeared but before the later pronounced hardening and brightening of the coronal emission, suggesting an early timing-domain signature of disk--corona reconfiguration. Phenomenologically, the dominant variability evolves from a smoother, finite-memory correlated process to a rougher, shorter-memory red-noise process. In the later 2022--2024 observations, SHO-like components associated with the known millihertz QPO show increasing characteristic frequency and quality factor, indicating a faster and more coherent oscillatory component during the QPO-plus-jet phase. GP-based time-domain inference therefore provides a sensitive probe of stochastic-variability changes in recovering AGN coronae.

astro-ph.HE

Exploring the dynamics of the Coma galaxy cluster by mapping its X-ray emission line profiles with XRISM

The intracluster medium (ICM) in merging galaxy clusters exhibits turbulence and bulk flows. Unraveling these components is crucial not only for elucidating the geometry of the cluster mergers, but also for understanding the physics of magnetic field amplification and relativistic particle acceleration. XRISM/Resolve data for two $3'\times3'$ fields in the core of the Coma cluster reveales that the ICM in the central field moves with $Δcz = -430$~km~s$^{-1}$ relative to the cluster galaxy average, while that in the southern field moves with $Δcz = -730$~km~s$^{-1}$ (see \cite{2025ApJ...985L..20X}, hereinafter ``Paper I''). In this paper, we perform a more detailed analysis of these data sets to search for non-Gaussian features in the Fe-K line complex profiles. In the spectra from the northwest (NW) quadrant of the central field, in addition to the main and redshifted ICM components ($Δcz = -40$ km s$^{-1}$) reported in Paper I, we find evidence of another, blueshifted component, moving with $Δcz = -1250$ km s$^{-1}$. For a systematic search for other significant velocity components, we perform a bias-free 3 eV step multi-component fit to the Resolve full-array spectra from the central and southern fields. This search uncovers another redshifted component in the southern field, moving with $Δcz \sim +1230$ km s$^{-1}$. We estimate the energy densities of the ICM turbulence and bulk motion to be similar to each other and several times greater than the energy density of the cluster's $B\sim 5~μ$G magnetic field.

astro-ph.HE