C-SWIM: A Coupled Space Weather Impact Model for Satellite Fleet Vulnerability and Economic Loss Under a 1-in-100-Year Solar Energetic Particle Event

Abstract

Modern economies depend critically on satellite infrastructure, yet the aggregate economic consequences of extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events have not been rigorously assessed. This study develops an integrated framework linking SEP hazard characterization, dynamic geomagnetic cutoff rigidity modeling, radiation dose transport, and fleet-wide failure probability estimation to macroeconomic impact analysis. Using extreme-value analysis of 160 SEP events over 27.4 years (1996-2025), failure probability is estimated for ~10,650 US operational satellites under orbital regime-dependent shielding assumptions. The assessment reveals that ~100 satellites (1.0%) are at Critical risk, concentrated in high-altitude low Earth orbit and highly elliptical orbit, while medium Earth orbit and geosynchronous orbit satellites fall in the Negligible class (P_fail < 10^-9) under the assumed radiation-hardened components and shielding. The expected capital loss across the ~$254B fleet totals ~$5.2B. Three failure scenarios, expanding from Critical satellites only (P_fail > 10^-2), to Critical and Elevated (P_fail > 10^-3), and to all satellites with non-negligible risk (P_fail > 10^-6), yield daily economic impacts of ~$70M, ~$270M, and ~$1.3B, respectively. Earth observation suffers up to 95.6% capacity loss in the worst case, while military services experience 16.1-20.4% disruption across scenarios. Results are first-order estimates: hardware failure counts are conservative because only total ionizing dose is modeled, and daily economic impacts represent upper bounds because operator response and recovery are not included.