What Molecular Structure Cannot Tell Us: A Taxonomy of Explainability Gaps in GNN-Based Drug Toxicity Prediction

Abstract

Not all clinically relevant adverse effects are structurally inferable from molecular graphs - regardless of model quality or architectural complexity. This study introduces an operational taxonomy of the structural information limits that prevent structure-based toxicity prediction, independent of the learning algorithm employed. Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a natural approach for molecular toxicity prediction, operating directly on atomic connectivity without the information loss inherent to fixed-length fingerprints. However, the fraction of a drug's known pharmacological profile that is actually inferable from molecular structure remains systematically underexplored. A systematic case study using acetylsalicylic acid (ASA, Aspirin) - one of the most comprehensively characterized drugs in pharmacology - serves as model compound. A Message Passing Neural Network (MPNN) is trained on the Tox21 benchmark and GNNExplainer is applied to characterize atom-level attribution. Results indicate that molecular structure explains approximately 45% (5/11) of known ASA adverse effects. A four-category Gap Taxonomy (GAP-1 through GAP-4) is introduced distinguishing between principally non-encodable effects, data gaps arising from Missing Not At Random (MNAR) mechanisms, assay panel mismatches, and representation errors. The MNAR gap is empirically quantified via a systematic ChEMBL query (42 documented assays, 0 retrievable bioactivity entries). An attention pooling experiment localizes the representation error to the MPNN message passing layers rather than the aggregation step. The Gap Taxonomy has direct implications for drug safety signal detection and regulatory frameworks including Good Pharmacovigilance Practice (GVP) guidelines and New Approach Methodologies (NAMs). Structural limits identified are confirmed in a companion DDI ablation study.