Search arXiv⌕ Search
Home/Archive/arXiv

arXiv · 2605.28417

The fused asset flow model: stability, bifurcation, and contagion in multi-asset markets with heterogeneous investors

Mario Cavani
View original source ↗Read source document ↗Export metadata ↓

Abstract

This paper presents a unified multi-asset, multi-group asset-flow model that integrates three foundational frameworks from the behavioral finance literature. The model captures the dynamics of financial markets where multiple assets are traded by multiple investor groups, each with distinct trend-following (momentum) and value-based (fundamental) strategies. Unlike classical efficient market models, our framework explicitly incorporates the finiteness of cash and shares, asymmetric cross-asset coupling in buying decisions, and endogenous wealth redistribution across groups. We derive the complete system of ordinary differential equations governing price, cash, share, and sentiment dynamics, and establish the fundamental properties of positivity and boundedness for all physically relevant variables. The equilibrium set is characterized as a manifold parameterized by cash distribution, with the fundamental equilibrium as a special point. Through linear stability analysis, we identify conditions under which the fundamental equilibrium loses stability via a supercritical Hopf bifurcation, giving rise to persistent limit cycles. The model is validated against three benchmark papers: the single-asset multi-group model of DeSantis, Swigon, and Caginalp (2012); the two-asset single-group model of Bulut, Merdan, and Swigon (2019); and the two-asset two-group Nigeria-Libya oil market model of Cavani (2026). Our numerical simulations reproduce all key theoretical predictions, including equilibrium manifolds, Hopf bifurcation thresholds, limit cycle periods, and asymmetric contagion patterns.

Explore related subjects

math.DS

Keep this discovery

Explore connections, maps & timelines

BibTeXRIS

Mario Cavani. 2026-05-27. The fused asset flow model: stability, bifurcation, and contagion in multi-asset markets with heterogeneous investors. https://arxiv.org/abs/2605.28417

Cite the original work for its findings. Save a collection to share your selection of sources.

KEEP EXPLORING

Related papers

arXiv2026

Equidistribution of saddle periodic points for Hénon-like maps

We prove that under a natural assumption on the dynamical degrees, the saddle periodic points of a Hénon-like map in any dimension equidistribute with respect to the equilibrium measure. Our work is a generalization of the results of Bedford-Lyubich-Smillie, Dujardin, and Dinh-Sibony along with improvements of their techniques. We also investigate some fine properties of Green currents associated with the map.

math.DS↗
arXiv2026

On dissonance and orthogonal projections of self-conformal measures

Let $μ$ be a self-conformal measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$. We establish conditions for $μ$ under which $\dim(μ*ν) = \min\lbrace d,\dimμ+\dimν\rbrace$ holds when $ν$ is any Ahlfors-regular or self-conformal measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Our main result states the following sufficient condition: $μ$ is totally non-linear and not supported on a smooth hypersurface. We also establish sufficient (likely non-sharp) algebraic conditions for self-conformal measures which are not totally non-linear. In addition, we show that $\dim μ\circπ^{-1} = \min\{ k, \dim μ\}$ for every ortohogonal projection $π:\mathbb{R}^d\to\mathbb{R}^k$, $0<k<d$, when either $d=2$ and $μ$ is not self-similar and not supported on a line, or $d\geq 3$ and $μ$ is totally non-linear and not supported on a smooth hypersurface.

math.DS↗
arXiv2026

Equation-Free Screening of Mittag-Leffler-Compatible Dynamics from Scalar Time Series via kNN Multi-Horizon Profiles

Fractional models provide a natural description of systems with memory, but a noninteger derivative should not be introduced solely because a time series is curved or slowly relaxing. We develop an equation-free preliminary screening framework that asks whether a scalar time series produces a multi-horizon k-nearest-neighbor (kNN) profile more compatible with Mittag-Leffler-type behavior than with selected conventional alternatives. In an ideal matched Caputo-relaxation benchmark, the complete generation-kNN-profile-model-comparison pipeline reproduces the expected Mittag-Leffler geometry and recovers the generating order to within approximately $10^{-3}$; this is interpreted as controlled calibration rather than as general fractional-order identification. Under 3% trajectory-specific observational noise, the held-out Mittag-Leffler preference is most consistent when the generating dynamics are well separated from the integer-order limit and becomes progressively less decisive as $α\rightarrow1$. The fitted order $α_{\mathrm{fit}}$, however, shows substantially larger realization-to-realization variability. Thus, relative model compatibility is more robust than single-realization order estimation in the present noisy benchmark. Noise-free nonfractional controls show a separate limitation of specificity: a stretched exponential can generate a strongly Mittag-Leffler-compatible profile, whereas inclusion of the generating rational/Hill family recovers that family and its parameters to numerical precision in the matched setting. A positive Mittag-Leffler-versus-exponential screen therefore does not uniquely establish fractional origin. A fractional chaotic system is treated only as an exploratory extension: the Mittag-Leffler growth family gives lower finite-window RMSE than exponential and logistic/saturating alternatives over the detected pre-transition interval.

math.DS↗