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arXiv · 2606.02362

Endogenous Fertility Waves and the Dynamics of Utility in an Overlapping Generations Model

Wolfgang Kuhle
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Abstract

This paper investigates the conditions under which the Easterlin hypothesis holds within a neoclassical overlapping generations model with endogenous capital accumulation, wages, interest rates, and fertility. We develop a tractable analytical framework that maps economic transitions into utility space via a continuously differentiable first-order difference equation for cohort lifetime utilities. This reformulation allows for a transparent normative evaluation of non-steady-state paths without requiring explicit solutions to the underlying nonlinear system. Within this framework, we show that when fertility cycles emerge and children are normal goods, the utility of small cohorts strictly exceeds that of large cohorts. Crucially, this cohort-welfare asymmetry is driven by fertility preferences and is independent of the economy's position relative to the golden rule.

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Wolfgang Kuhle. 2026-06-01. Endogenous Fertility Waves and the Dynamics of Utility in an Overlapping Generations Model. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.02362

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