Optimal sequential two-stage Bayes Factor Design for two-arm clinical Phase II Trials with binary Endpoints

Riko Kelter

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arXiv · 2606.02410

Optimal sequential two-stage Bayes Factor Design for two-arm clinical Phase II Trials with binary Endpoints

Riko Kelter

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Abstract

Two-arm phase II clinical trials often benefit from an interim analysis that allows early stopping for futility, but Bayesian calibration of such designs is usually based on computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulation. In this work, a simulation-free methodology is developed to obtain Bayesian optimal two-stage designs in two-arm phase II trials with binary endpoints using Bayes factors as the primary measure of evidence. Building on recent matrix-search methods for fixed-sample two-arm Bayes factor designs and earlier correction formulas for one-arm two-stage designs, the proposed approach derives exact expressions for the operating characteristics of a two-stage two-arm design with a single futility interim. Bayesian power and type-I error are obtained by correcting the corresponding fixed-sample quantities for trajectories that would have been removed by early stopping, yielding a fully numerical calibration procedure that avoids Monte Carlo error entirely. The resulting method searches over admissible interim and final sample sizes to identify the optimal design that satisfies target constraints on Bayesian power, type-I error, and the probability of compelling evidence in favour of the null hypothesis, while minimizing the expected sample size under the null hypothesis. The methodology is illustrated in realistic phase II settings, including a detailed re-analysis of the riociguat trial in systemic sclerosis. Overall, the approach extends simulation-free Bayes factor design methodology to the practically important setting of two-arm two-stage phase II trials and provides a transparent basis for Bayesian design calibration and sensitivity analysis.

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BibTeX RIS

Riko Kelter. 2026-06-01. Optimal sequential two-stage Bayes Factor Design for two-arm clinical Phase II Trials with binary Endpoints. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.02410

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