Astrophysical Uncertainties in Sub-GeV Dark Matter Detection via Single Phonon Excitations

Abstract

We present the first systematic study of how local dark matter velocity distribution uncertainties propagate into direct detection rates for dark matter--single phonon scattering. We consider three benchmark halo models -- Standard Halo Model, Tsallis and empirical -- and vary the astrophysical parameters within observationally motivated ranges. To compare halo models on equal footing, we introduce an rms-matching prescription that holds the mean dark matter kinetic energy fixed across models. With this prescription, differences between halo models prove subdominant to parameter variations within each model, so that astrophysical uncertainties can be effectively captured by varying parameters within the Standard Halo Model alone. We find $\mathcal{O}(1\%)$ to $\mathcal{O}(100\%)$ fractional deviations in the predicted rates across the dark matter mass range of interest. For the daily modulation signal, astrophysical parameter variations rescale the amplitude but leave the phase robust. These results provide timely input for reliably interpreting upcoming phonon-based direct detection experiments targeting sub-GeV dark matter.