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arXiv · 2606.07393

Is US Defense Acquisition Ready to Acquire AI-Enabled Capabilities? Assessing the DoD Software Acquisition Pathway Through a Scenario-Based Policy Analysis

Daniel Lugo·James C. Davis
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Abstract

As AI systems transition from experimental prototypes to mission-critical tools, their dependence on dynamic data, evolving models, and governance raises questions about whether existing acquisition pathways can keep pace. The U.S. Department of Defense has modernized its acquisition processes through the Adaptive Acquisition Framework, with the Software Acquisition Pathway (SWP) serving as the primary mechanism for acquiring software-intensive capabilities. This paper evaluates whether SWP is sufficient to address the unique demands of AI acquisition. In this work, we perform a scenario-based evaluation that traces a notional AI-enabled program through key SWP planning activities to assess how policy translates into program artifacts and decisions. We use Policy Scenario Analysis to examine whether the SWP-centered governance stack provides sufficient actionable support for AI acquisition. The governance stack provides a viable foundation for iterative delivery and AI testing. However, we identify a recurring actionability problem in the core guidance. AI-specific controls for data provenance, lifecycle management, and human oversight remain distributed across supplemental documents rather than embedded in the program-facing mechanisms through which SWP is executed. This disconnect leaves program offices reliant on inconsistent local interpretation. We conclude by recommending an AI-supporting sub-path and targeted artifact refinements to better bridge this policy-to-artifact gap.

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Daniel Lugo, James C. Davis. 2026-06-05. Is US Defense Acquisition Ready to Acquire AI-Enabled Capabilities? Assessing the DoD Software Acquisition Pathway Through a Scenario-Based Policy Analysis. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.07393

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